THE EFFECT OF DECLINING OIL PRICES ON FOOD & WATER SECURITY POLICIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Abstract

The recent drop in oil prices and the resulting effect on the incomes of oilproducing nations in the Middle East is likely to escalate food security concerns. Following the 2008 global food crisis, food security concerns heightened, resulting in the implementation of measures such as agricultural self-sufficiency. However, the feasibility of food security solutions has shifted in response to oil price changes and may render some costly solutions such as self-sufficiency completely unfeasible. This thesis revisits the feasibility of food and water security solutions by analyzing historical agricultural import data and attempts to determine how Arab countries will react in response to plummeting oil prices. The food security solutions that Arab countries pick not only affect food supplies, but also national water supplies. Therefore, we also incorporate a study of water security, an interlinked issue. We recommend feasible courses of action for two types of MENA countries: oil importers and oil exporters, based on their different trade specializations and economic endowments.