The aTaxi Revolution: Autonomous Vehicle Implementation and Optimization in the United States and China

Abstract

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) - cars that can sense their environment and navigate without human input - have been a much discussed and highly debated phenomenon in recent years. While the technology will likely be disruptive, there are significant benefits worth analyzing to paint a full picture of what the world could look like in the near future and how AVs could shape the landscape of transportation. How will urban centers change? How will fundamental attitudes toward transportation shift?Two of the most advanced countries in the AV arena are the United States and China. U.S. technology companies from Tesla, Uber, Intel and Alphabet as well as their Chinese counterparts Baidu, Tencent, Changan, Didi, and Uisee are all investing heavily in the space. They're developing technology, partnering with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and making a push to get regulations in place and cars on the road as early as possible.This thesis makes the case for AVs in suitable environments and argues that the technology will cause a permanent shift toward ride-sharing within urban centers. It also evaluates the benefits of implementation and addresses prevailing concerns. The phenomenon can benefit the world in many ways - through the improvement of safety, environment, traffic, and efficiency, among others. Driverless cars have the potential to give the young, old, blind, and disabled enhanced mobility. They can solve problems of congestion, accessibility, and parking. But what are the trade-offs? Jobs will disappear. Pedestrians, bikes, and public transportation could be relegated to the fringe of society. And, on an extreme level, cardiovascular issues, diabetes, and other health problems could increase due to lessened physical activity. AVs will no doubt cause disruption in many corners of society, but they will also bring significant benefits.This thesis then studies AVs in China, focusing on implementation feasibility, market potential, and obstacles. China and the U.S. are developing similar technologies, but the implementation in each country will differ in terms of type of AV, timeline and path towards mostly or fully autonomous, and the regulations that aim to create autonomous-friendly environments. How will AVs integrate into each country and what advantages does China have in this realm? Quoted herein are business executives, technological experts, and academics stating their opinions on what the future holds. Finally, this thesis mathematically and programmatically tackles the question of how an autonomous ride-sharing service will be implemented in a realistic setting, using Manhattan as a case study. This is done by analyzing synthesized individual trip data and optimally placing passengers in different capacity "aTaxis" to minimize time and distance traveled, while maximizing average vehicle occupancy (AVO). Constraints are varied to discern the best autonomous taxi network (ATN). What is the optimal ride-sharing system for Manhattan and how will shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) replace the existing individual car ownership culture?It is no longer a question of whether AVs will hit the road; it is now a matter of when and how. This thesis sheds light on both matters.