Maximize Safety, Minimize Cost: A Long Term Solution to Syrian Refugee Crisis through Optimization

Abstract

The world leaders agree that forced migration will be a permanent challenge to the 21st century.1 The war in Syria is heading into its 8th year and there is no end to the conflict in sight. Over 5 million people have fled Syria since 2011, seeking safety in Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and beyond. More than7millionareestimatedtobedisplacedinsideSyria.2 However,thecurrentresponseframework for refugee crises falls short and is designed for temporary periods of human displacement, when the average age of refugee camps is 17.3 As the authorities accepted that refugee camps are indeed the “cities of tomorrow”, their designs have to be adjusted to this long-term objective that reflects the reality of the situation. As we couldn’t foresee that the refugee camps were going to be long-term and will stand through generations and production cycles, they have been usually built either very close to the border or in the middle of nowhere, effectively turning refugees in the camps to prisoners who have no access to the outside world. However, the cost of establishment and more importantly, maintenance of the camps should be taken into account when deciding on their location. Limited availability of resources as well as high uncertainty and urgency with this prolonged state of crisis calls for optimization to achieve a sustainable solution for humanitarian aid logistics. This thesis attempts to determine the optimal location of refugee camps that will minimize a combina- tion of these costs within political boundaries. The costs and the policy constraints on the UNHCR and host governments such as economic activity feasibility, concerns of coexistence with the locals and border security are represented in terms of distances. Quantifying these constraints as such and including them in our problem provide political feasibility to an economically efficient solution. Minimizing the cost through finding an optimal solution for the refugee camp location, should help the host governments to increase their capacity and will provide safer, more stable and long-term homes to the refugees.