How Many Candies Are in the Jar? The Role of Shared Memory Representations in Quantitative Group Judgments

Abstract

An extensive body of research shows that individual decisions are often based on the information that people remember. No research to date has investigated whether group decisions are influenced by the degree to which its constitutive members share their mnemonic representations. In this senior thesis, we explored whether collective memory predicts group judgment. In Study 1, we calibrated stimulus materials at the individual level. Participants studied an apartment listing from Nairobi, Kenya. They then recalled information from the listing and provided an estimate of nightly rent price. Results showed that individual recall bias (i.e. positive, negative, or unbiased) predicted the direction of estimation. In Study 2, we investigated whether the group’s collective memory predicted group judgment. After studying and recalling information about the listing, triads made initial estimates, and could adjust their estimates (based on other group members’ estimates) in following negotiation rounds. The group engaged in negotiation rounds until their estimates were within $5 of each other. It was hypothesized that 1) for groups in which mnemonic convergence was high, group members’ initial estimates would be more similar; and 2) for groups in which mnemonic convergence was high, groups would reach consensus in fewer negotiation rounds. The results provided evidence for the first hypothesis, but showed that groups with low mnemonic convergence reached consensus faster than groups with high mnemonic convergence. Possible implications and future directions are discussed.