The Balancing Act: The Intersection of U.S. Economic and Humanitarian Policies and the Denuclearization Agenda in North Korea

Abstract

North Korea, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), remains a threat to the United States and its allies for many reasons. After decades of poor economic decisions, North Koreans are plagued with poverty and food insecurity. On top of violating internationally accepted human rights standards, the Kim regime, led by Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un, has engaged in antagonistic and retaliatory rhetoric toward the U.S. and its allies, while aggressively building up North Korea’s military and attempting to exert its power and control in the region. The DPRK also possesses nuclear weapons. The United States and its NATO allies remain deeply concerned by the increasingly hostile nation. The United States, with key military bases in the region, has long-standing, strong relationships with neighboring South Korea and Japan, putting it in the middle of this volatile situation. Because of the aforementioned factors, the United Nations Security Council has enforced sanctions against North Korea in an attempt to pressure the regime to change; this has severely hurt the DPRK’s economy and many North Koreans themselves. Interestingly, North Korean citizens have been able to improve their situation through marketization; markets have become an institutionalized aspect of North Korean daily life. This paper seeks to build upon public policy literature to address the current situation with North Korea. Specifically, is there a way for the U.S. to improve the quality of life for North Koreans through humanitarian and/or economic assistance to civilians facing repression, food insecurity and poor economic conditions while not undermining its allimportant denuclearization agenda? While experts have looked at offering humanitarian assistance, it is difficult to reconcile sending significant levels of aid for fear that it will undermine sanctions and take away from the U.S. denuclearization goal. This paper analyzes quantitative data on the North Korean economy, the impact of sanctions, the historical distribution of aid, and the viability of North Korean defectors as a mechanism for assisting with distribution of aid going forward. It also includes qualitative data from 10 interviews conducted in Seoul and the U.S., either in person, or by telephone. This thesis argues that while humanitarian aid may not be as impactful as the U.S. may hope, it can be used as a tool to help North Korean citizens. This would not undermine the denuclearization agenda as long as the U.S. provides assistance while maintaining sanctions against the Kim regime. Research has strongly suggested sanctions are generally working; although there have been evasion efforts by the regime and evidence suggests sanctions may be hurting civilians worst, the United Nations is working to combat these effects. Moreover, providing aid and/or helping promote the North Korean black markets, a symbol of burgeoning capitalism, could be in the U.S.’s best interests by perhaps helping to pave the way for a regime change or an opening up of the North Korean economy (which in turn could pressure the regime). However, this paper notes the difficulty of providing humanitarian assistance and the limitations on its effectiveness; it also recognizes that the denuclearization of North Korea is becoming increasingly unlikely and may ultimately be difficult to achieve.