ONE CHILD, TWO CHILD, YES CHILD, NO CHILD: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY IN CHINA

Abstract

Beijing has begun to relax its famous “one-child” policy, re-igniting debates about whether or not these changes will cause fertility levels in China to fluctuate. This thesis conducts a two-part analysis in order to determine the extent to which socioeconomic factors and the one-child policy are responsible for observed fertility levels across China. The first study regresses county-level data from 2000, modeling policy effect and scope, demographic characteristics, and socioeconomic factors in an attempt to answer this question. Findings indicate that both policy variables and socioeconomic factors (income per capita, migration rates, and women’s education) are significant determinants of fertility, as well as hukou status and ethnicity. The second study assesses online survey data to uncover whether the same findings hold at the individual level. Hukou status and ethnicity, political status, and low income are the key determinants of fertility. These findings not only corroborate G. S. Becker’s economic theory of fertility, but they also provide a greater understanding of the mechanisms behind Chinese fertility and encourage policymakers in Beijing to continue to deliberate its next population control policies.