Explaining the Success of Islamic Insurgent Groups: A Case Study of the Islamic State and al Qaeda

Abstract

The Islamic State emerged from the roots of al Qaeda, but has achieved more success than its parent group. It has independently established its own brand characterized by brutal violence and a prominent social media presence. This thesis examines what explains the Islamic State’s rise to be the most dominant Islamic terrorist group to date. I define success for the Islamic State as number of fighters and number of attacks executed. I evaluate four hypotheses to measure the effect of extreme ideology, diversified financing streams, centralized organizational structures, and social media on number of fighters and attacks. I find that a more extreme ideology does not have a large effect on recruiting more fighters. Diversified financing streams and centralized structures are more sustainable models to organize by, and finally that social media is more effective than websites and chatrooms in recruiting and executing attacks.