THE EUROPEAN REFUGEE CRISIS AND THE EFFECT OF ASYLUM RECEPTION CENTERS ON THE FAR-RIGHT VOTE

Abstract

Does the presence of an asylum reception center affect the far-right vote in the community in which it is located? The existing literature on far-right political parties in Europe has identified immigration as one of the main grievances uniting these parties’ success. While the threat of perceived immigration as a determinant in far-right support has been well-documented, there are only scant studies on the impact of asylum reception centers, establishments that result in a localized increase in migrants. This study addressed the hypothesis that an increased level of personal contacts between European citizens and migrants, due to the presence of a reception center, diminishes the perceived threat of immigration, thereby decreasing far-right support within that community. To test this hypothesis, this study analyzed data from national elections after the refugee crisis in four European countries: France, Serbia, Finland and Greece. Statistical analyses for each election were evaluated at the lowest possible administrative level, comparing the change in the vote for far-right parties as a function of the presence or absence of a reception center, while controlling for possible confounding variables. Within France, communities hosting an asylum center exhibited a statistically lower vote for the far right as compared to the previous elections, confirming the tested hypothesis. However, this was not the case in Serbia where the presence of an asylum center significantly increased far-right support while in Finland and Greece, centers did not significantly impact the vote. Thus, this study highlights critical differences between European countries with respect to the impact of asylum centers on the far-right vote and furthermore, it underscores the need for additional research focusing on the reasons underlying these disparate results.