Mapping Air Pollution Across China: An Analysis of Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) and Surface Ozone Pollution (2014 – 2019) with Correlating Provincial Socioeconomic Levels (2018)

Abstract

Over the past two decades, China’s extraordinary economic growth and industrialization resulted in some of the world’s worst air quality, with tremendous adverse impacts on public health. In response, China’s government declared a ‘war on air pollution’ to improve its air quality. This thesis uses spatial mapping of air pollution data from 2014–2019 to assess changes in concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone, the two air pollutants that pose the most severe health risks. It also conducts a correlational analysis between air quality and provincial gross regional product (GRP) per capita to consider differential exposure to air pollution across socioeconomic levels. Megacity regions with severe air pollution exceeded their 15%+ targets for reductions in PM2.5 (as laid out in China’s 2013 Air Pollution Action Plan) -- especially the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region which saw a 45% reduction. Following these unprecedented successes, it is the inland provinces of the North China Plain which now experience the country’s highest PM2.5 levels, still in excess of the 35 μg/m^3 national air quality standard. Ozone levels nationwide, however, primarily increased, with the general exception of coastal cities. In 2019, major cities experienced several periods of hourly ozone averages above the 200 μg/m^3 national standard. Together, these results point towards the need for policies aimed at reducing ozone production and targeting new loci of air pollution. The correlational analysis did not reveal any statistically significant relationships between average provincial air quality and economic status. A finer-level analysis that accounts for individual-level exposure rates across socioeconomic groups may identify differences in exposure levels. This analytical framework that links pollution with socioeconomic status provides a basis for incorporating ethical considerations into the formation of clean air policies in China.