An Assessment of Evolving Storm Surge Hazards Under Climate Change For Wilmington, North Carolina

Abstract

Storm surge is a dangerous hazard that often accompanies hurricanes. It can cause damage to infrastructure and can even kill. North Carolina has a history of hurricanes and is one of the most vulnerable coastlines on the east coast of the United States. Most research is focused along the northern coast, in the Outer Banks region. This thesis looks at how climate change will affect storm surge over the course of the century along the souther coast, near Wilmington, North Carolina. Results show that storm surge is expected to increase as the century progresses, due in large part to increased hurricane wind speeds and larger radii of maximum winds. This causes the return period of today’s 100-yr and 500-yr storm surge levels to decrease dramatically. Furthermore, it increases the probability of receiving a 500-yr storm surge level in 100 years.