ON SYRIA Civil War or Regional Chess: An analysis of regional dynamics from protest to the withdrawal of US troops

Abstract

Iran, Hezbollah, Israel, and Turkey are the four major regional actors in the Syrian Civil War. While Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar were involved, their role in the conflict is miniscule compared to the others. How have regional actors—namely Iran, Hezbollah, Israel, and Turkey shaped the Syrian conflict? What are their interests in the war—vis a vis Syria and each other— and how have their policy decisions evolved between March 2011 and December 2018? What light do these policy decisions shed on the future of Syria, and what implications does that have for U.S. involvement going forward? Through analyses of policy briefs, contemporary news reports, and interviews with Middle East experts, this thesis will seek to answer those questions. In this thesis, I argue that the Syrian Civil War has transformed itself into a regional game of chess where Syria acts as the board and regional actors move the pieces. With the exception of Russia (and to a certain extent the United States) the Syrian Civil War is simply an arena in which regional actors carry out geopolitical interests through calculated policy decisions. By analyzing each actor’s history with Syria, national interests, and policy decisions throughout the Civil War, I seek to untangle the web of geopolitics that contributed to the war that sees no end.