COUNTERPRODUCTIVE EFFORTS? A STUDY OF THE EFFECT OF THE U.S DRUG WAR ON VIOLENCE IN COLOMBIA

Abstract

The United States has engaged in a long war against narcotics in Latin America having mixed results. In Colombia in particular, the grand Plan Colombia has seen a lot of both support and criticism in its implementation in the early 2000s and onward. The conventional wisdom regarding the U.S drug war in Latin America is that it has been one long failure, failing to curtail drug manufacture and trade as well as the side effects of violence and despair. However, no causal mechanisms have been specifically tested and no research has been done on recent developments in Colombia where there has also been a downturn in violence and a general improvement in the overall situation. This analysis serves to study the relationship between drug law enforcement in Colombia and violence in light of this new situation and lack of causal mechanism investigation. Most of the work that has already been done has focused on the early efforts of Plan Colombia, while the current study takes a step further to analyze the plan’s effect near its end and afterwards. Through mediation analysis, the causal mechanism of law enforcement leading to a fractionalization of criminal groups, which in turn leads to violence, is tested. The results, although unable to provide evidence for an effect of law enforcement or fractionalization on violence, do indicate that a closer look must be taken at the modern situation of U.S drug policy and efforts in Latin America as well as the causal mechanisms by which they effect violence and other quality of life factors.