aTaxis vs. Airlines: The Fall of Domestic Air Travel in an Autonomous Ridesharing Transportation System

Abstract

The current transportation system in place in the United States is built around the interstate highway system and personal car ownership. The true potential and efficiency of the highway system in place has not been reached as a result of personal car congestion. The implementation of autonomous ridesharing programs would cut down congestion and increase the overall efficiency of the system. Without drivers behind the wheel, aTaxis will cut travel costs drastically, making long haul ground transportation more affordable. This change in pricing will shift the demand curve for short domestic air travel. While autonomous vehicles are on the precipice of driving transportation costs down, the airline industry is becoming more expensive and time consuming due to additional airline fees and tightened airport security protocol [1]. As autonomous vehicles hit the streets, consumers will be in a position to decide between spending their time rushing to and from airports, waiting in security, and operating on airline timetables, or working in the back seat during their door to door trip in an autonomous taxi. As the emergence of autonomous ridesharing networks begin to take effect, ground transportation prices will begin to undercut the airlines, causing a change in consumer demand for short domestic trips. This change in demand can be modeled to further understand the projected effect on the airline industry as well as the expected increase in demand for long haul ground transportation. A sample dataset of the existing flight tickets from the Federal Aviation Administration paired with Synthesized US trips data, allows for the modeling of the impact of the implementation of a long haul aTaxi ground transportation system on the airline industry. This analysis will allow for a better understanding of how aTaxis will affect consumer demand for short domestic travel options.